Car
Dan Fallows: Is F1 ‘throwing it all away’ with 2026 rules overhaul?
by Dan Fallows
9min read
Dan Fallows is a Formula 1 aerodynamicist who previously served as head of aerodynamics for Red Bull Racing and as technical director for Aston Martin. In his first column for Raceteq, he explores the purpose of the 2026 F1 regulation reset and asks whether it’s truly necessary.
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As we approach the halfway point of the 2025 season, it’s worth noting how excellent the racing has been. We have had four race-winning drivers in three different cars stealing the headlines, but fascinating battles are raging in the midfield as well.
The question is, could F1 be throwing this all away for a major upheaval in the power unit and chassis regulations for 2026?
Red Bull dominated at the start of this cycle in 2022 but Aston Martin made gains at the start of 2023 before McLaren found pace.
Only in 2024 did McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari emerge as the top four teams, but even now in the second half of the fourth season of this generation, it’s not always certain who will excel on a given weekend.
Some of the more uncompetitive teams can have outstanding weekends, underlined by Nico Hulkenberg’s fabulous 2025 Silverstone podium.
Despite some less dramatic races at certain circuits, we are still seeing close racing - a major goal of this ruleset - and a degree of unpredictability. But why is that the case?
Nico Hulkenberg’s shock podium at the 2025 British Grand Prix shows that every team can excel on a given weekend
Why has 2025 been an exciting F1 season?
Tyres are key to understanding contemporary F1 cars.
Modern Pirelli F1 tyres are designed to support the enormous vertical, acceleration and lateral loads that the cars can generate, but they are also built with a limited lifespan. Over a single flying lap in qualifying, tyre tread degrades. That makes it unlikely for drivers to complete two fast laps on one set of tyres.
That’s due to temperature; there’s an optimum temperature for the surface of the tyre to produce optimum grip, but this temperature will fluctuate over the course of a lap.
Were we to continue with these current regulations in F1 for the next two years and McLaren’s development stagnated compared to the rest of the grid, it would struggle to get out of Q1 by the end of 2026.
Dan Fallows
For example, at Barcelona, a car with more downforce will be able to take the long-duration high-speed Turn 3 faster, but generate more tyre temperature. At Turn 5, a slower corner, the surface of the tyres may have overheated, causing a lack of grip and a compromised line.
There is typically more laptime available through slower corners (as the car spends more time in them than faster corners) so teams are reluctant to sacrifice this for better pace through faster corners.
We see cars that are fast in the first sector of Barcelona become slower in the last sector, and that’s because they have used too much of the tyres’ potential early on and compromised the latter part of the lap.
This problem leads teams to ponder whether solely adding more downforce is a good thing.
More time can be found in longer-radius corners at Barcelona, but downforce doesn’t necessarily equal pace in the current era
The questions raised by the new era of F1
It’s by no means ‘simple’ to add performance in the current era. Tightly controlled geometry (by regulation) and highly sensitive floor and diffuser surfaces mean adding performance is complex.
The phenomenon of porpoising - bouncing or oscillations - became clear right from the start of 2022. This can put more unwanted energy into the tyres and hurt performance around the rest of the lap.
Teams have learned to limit porpoising along with a regulation change that helped alleviate it, but it can still limit aerodynamicists in the chase for better laptimes.
Wind sensitivity of the current cars is also worse than in previous years - and aerodynamicists can only minimise this effect.
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Teams have mostly alleviated the problem of porpoising that reemerged in 2022 by reshaping their floors and changing ride height
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The front wing, wheel bodywork and devices around the front of the floor and sidepods are critical towards managing front wheel wake, which contributes to yaw (or crosswind) sensitivity of the car. From 2022, the design of these areas has been much more limited than before.
Teams can gain performance by improving flow management but these gains are more evident on a windy day, rather than a still one.
As expected, the 2025 grid has converged on largely the same aerodynamic concept; floor features and sculpted sidepods look similar. This is probably more evident than with previous regulations - and due to the complexity of generating usable performance under the current ruleset.
Once a decent package has been produced, it’s extremely time-consuming and costly to pursue a different philosophy.
With the current regulations to end in 2026, designing a large upgrade suite would be out of the question. It’s better to expend effort on refining the existing concept, even if there may be greater rewards from another one.
This raises two questions:
- If the cars are so difficult to develop and the designs have converged to this extent, have teams reached the limit of performance of the current cars?
- If the 2025 cars were retained instead of changing completely for 2026, would we see McLaren continue to dominate?
Certainly not.
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Our 3D render of what the 2026 F1 car could look like in a windtunnel
The current generation of F1 cars hasn’t reached its peak
Development for 2025 is slowing down as teams concentrate on the awesome task of developing all-new cars for 2026.
It’s getting harder and harder for teams to extract more downforce from the main components of the car - and we haven’t seen genuine innovation on the floors of the cars for over a year, for example.
Yet there are many other ways to add performance.
Managing tyre temperature in race trim is critically important to allowing drivers to race at speed rather than under-driving to preserve tyre life.
Thermal management prevents tyre sliding, particularly at the rear axle in corner entry, which is a common issue for cars at the limit of grip.
Were we to continue with these current regulations in F1 for the next two years and McLaren’s development stagnated compared to the rest of the grid, it would struggle to get out of Q1 by the end of 2026.
The pace of progress is extraordinary, as evidenced by the fate of teams that have not managed to stay with that pace.
Ironically, the teams’ focus of being drawn to the 2026 regulations has partly helped spawn closer and more exciting racing in 2025.
The cars also look very similar - a shame given the potential for the talented teams in F1 to innovate.
Dan Fallows
The field is close at this stage of the F1 regulations and it’s hard to predict which midfield team will score points on any given weekend
Why the move to 2026 F1 cars isn’t all bad
The current regulations are not perfect. Cars are heavy as a result of increased safety requirements and more complex regulations. Furthermore, their vast footprint makes it harder to produce racing at tighter circuits like Monaco.
There’s also still a heavy reliance on the drag reduction system (DRS) to allow overtaking.
And the cars also look very similar - a shame given the potential for the talented teams in F1 to innovate.
The 2026 regulations should move things in the right direction and fans will relish the prospect of the competitive order shifting.
Part of that shift will come from power units, which could become a more significant performance factor as some manufacturers will be more successful at adapting to larger energy stores and the removal of the motor generator unit - heat (MGU-H) components.
The aerodynamic regulations mark a move away from heavily sculpted floors to a concept more in line with previous generations.
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While the 2026 F1 regulations might not be coming at the ‘right time’, the ruleset does have its advantages
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This could catalyse different approaches across the grid, particularly as aerodynamic departments battle again with prescriptive geometry and limited volumes and shapes.
Efficiency will be even more critical than before, ensuring that downforce to settle the car and increase cornering speeds does not come with too much drag to limit top speeds, particularly with the increased complexities of energy management.
As before, some teams will strike gold while others will quickly realise they need to work hard to catch up.
The development race will begin in earnest and, as always, there will be winners and losers.
It will be fascinating to see who can adapt and who struggles to cope. Fans may bid a fond farewell to the cars of 2025 but there is definitely much to be excited about for 2026.
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